GB/T 46409-2025Risk management - Guidelines for managing an emerging risk (English PDF)

Foreword

This document complies with the provisions of GB/T 1.1-2020 "Standardization Work Guidelines Part 1: Structure and Drafting Rules of Standardization Documents".

Drafting.

This document is modified to adopt ISO/T S31050.2023 "Risk Management. Guidance on Emerging Risk Management - Enhancing Resilience".

Compared with ISO/T S31050.2023, this document has undergone the following structural adjustments.

---Figure 1 corresponds to Figure 2 of ISO/T S31050, Figure 2 corresponds to Figure 3 of ISO/T S31050, and Figure 3 corresponds to Figure 4 of ISO/T S31050.

The technical differences between this document and ISO/T S31050.2023, and the reasons therefor, are as follows.

---Replace standard references to ISO 31000 (see Chapter 3, 5.1, 5.2, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3.1, 6.4.1, 6.5) with GB/T 24353-2022.

(6.6, 6.7, 8.2; Chapter 3, 5.1, 5.2, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3.1, 6.4.1, 6.5, 6.6, 6.7, 8.2 of ISO/T S31050.2023)

--- Replace the standard reference IEC 31010 (see Chapter 3, 6.4.2, 6.4.3, 6.5, ISO/T S31050.2023) with GB/T 27921.

Chapter 3, 6.4.2, 6.4.3, 6.5);

---Replace standard reference ISO 22316 with GB/T 42187 (see Chapter 3, 4.4 of ISO/T S31050.2023);

---Replace standard reference to ISO 22300 with GB/T 44483 (see Chapter 3, Chapter 3 of ISO/T S31050.2023);

---The term and definition of "systemic risk" have been added (see 3.7) to facilitate a better understanding of the content of this document in the Chinese context;

---Added the terminology and definition of "risk intelligence cycle" (see 3.8) to facilitate better understanding of this document in a Chinese context.

content;

Figure 1 has been deleted and its related descriptions have been modified to avoid including a figure that can be found in GB 24353-2022 and has no substantial meaning in this document.

The document is too lengthy (see 5.1, section 5.1 of ISO/T S31050.2023).

The following editorial changes have been made to this document.

---To align with existing standards, the standard's name has been changed to "Guide to Emerging Risk Management in Risk Management";

---The US example used in Appendix A for natural disasters (extreme weather events) has been removed, and more general examples have been used in place.

Please note that some content in this document may involve patents. The issuing organization of this document assumes no responsibility for identifying patents.

This document was proposed and is under the jurisdiction of the National Technical Committee on Standardization of Risk Management (SAC/TC310).

Introduction

Emerging risks are characterized by three main features. novelty, insufficient data, and a lack of verifiable information needed for decision-making, which leads to challenges in related decision-making.

War. Such risks can present both significant threats and opportunities; therefore, emerging risk management should be incorporated as part of an organization's overall risk management strategy. This should include...

Changes in various aspects of the organization's external environment or conditions and their impact on its internal environment.

Managing emerging risks should focus on knowledge and rely on accumulating verifiable data and information, especially when such data and information are limited or...

When inconsistencies arise, this information is interpreted to form knowledge and provides intelligence for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions.

Therefore, this document provides guidance on applying GB/T 24353 to manage emerging risks to enhance organizational resilience. The focus is on the impact on groups...

Emerging risks that could have significant consequences for the organization and its objectives.

Specific guidance includes.

---How to understand the nature and characteristics of emerging risks (see Chapter 4);

---How risk management principles apply to emerging risks (see Chapter 5);

---How to apply the risk management process given in GB/T 24353 to emerging risks (see Chapter 6);

---How to enhance resilience by managing emerging risks (see Chapter 7);

---How to use the risk intelligence cycle to manage emerging risks (see Chapter 8).

See Appendices A through F for details.

Applying this document will help organizations benefit from.

---Raise awareness to reduce the likelihood of failing to anticipate emerging risks;

---Identify emerging risks early and improve preparedness and resilience levels;

---Timely delivery of data and exchange of information with stakeholders;

---Coordinate actions across all aspects of the organization to address emerging risks.

Risk Management. A Guide to Emerging Risk Management

1 Scope

This document provides guidance for organizations managing emerging risks, including management principles and processes for emerging risks, and how to address them through emerging risks.

Risk management enhances organizational resilience, and includes risk intelligence cycles.

This document applies to all types of organizations, covering any stage of their development and all areas of activity. Its implementation may vary depending on the organization or its specific requirements.

Customized adjustments can be made for specific scenarios.

2 Normative references

The contents of the following documents, through normative references within the text, constitute essential provisions of this document. Dated citations are not included.

For references to documents, only the version corresponding to that date applies to this document; for undated references, the latest version (including all amendments) applies.

This document.

GB/T 24353-2022 Risk Management Guidelines GB/T 27921 Risk Management and Risk Assessment Techniques GB/T 42187 Safety and Toughness. Principles and Properties of Toughness in Organizations GB/T 44483 Safety and Resilience Terminology

3 Terms and Definitions

The terms and definitions defined in GB/T 24353-2022, GB/T 27921, GB/T 42187, and GB/T 44483, as well as the following terms and definitions, apply.

This document.

resilience attribute the characteristics of an organization's ability to absorb and adapt to changes in the environment.

knowledge

The results obtained through learning and absorbing information.

Note 1.Knowledge can be acquired through research, experience, or education.

Note 2.Knowledge includes information, facts, principles, theories, and practices related to a particular work or research field.

Note 3.Knowledge can be individual or collective. Collective knowledge is acquired through collaboration and the release of implicit and subconscious knowledge.

[Source. ISO 56000:2020, 3.4.1] 3.3 intelligence the results obtained through collecting, analyzing and interpreting data, information and knowledge (3.2).

Note. There are many types of intelligence, such as (but not limited to) market intelligence, technical intelligence, competitive intelligence, intellectual property intelligence, or business intelligence.

[Source. ISO 56006:2021, 3.1] 3.4 the ability of an organization to absorb, recover, and adapt to changing circumstances.