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GB/T 45738-2025Space objects long-term evolution model (English PDF)

空间碎片环境演化模型

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Issued by

SAMR; SAC

Level / Type

National · Recommended

Issue date

May 30, 2025

Implementation date

September 1, 2025

Scope

GB/T 45738-2025 is the English-translated version of 空间碎片环境演化模型.

GB/T 45738-2025 is the Chinese national standard covering the simulation that projects the debris population a century forward — the launch traffic model, the collision probability assessment and the break-up model that turns one collision into thousands of new objects, the orbital evolution and decay, the post-mission disposal and active removal models, and then the calculation process with its inputs, outputs and stated accuracy, plus the scenarios including large constellations against which the model is exercised. First edition, with the terminology GB/T 45621-2025. In force from 1 September 2025. Issued on 30 May 2025, it has been in force since 1 September 2025.

Document preview — GB/T 45738-2025

National Standard of the People's Republic of China

ICS: 49.020
Classification: V 70

Issued by: State Administration for Market Regulation; Standardization Administration of the PRC

PrefaceIII
1 Scope1
2 Normative references1
3 Terms and Definitions1
4 Space debris environment evolution model algorithm2
4.1 Basic structure of the model and model representation2
4.2 Launch Model3
4.3 Collision Probability Assessment Model3
4.4 Disintegration Model4
4.5 Orbital evolution model5
4.6 Post-task processing model7
4.7 Active Debris Removal Model8
5 Calculation process of space debris environment evolution model9
5.1 Calculation Process9
5.2 Model Input11
5.3 Model Output11
5.4 Model Accuracy12
Appendix A (Informative) Example of basic setting scenario for space debris environment evolution model13
A.1 Basic Setting Scenario13
A.2 General evolution scenario13
A.3 Considering large constellation scenarios13 A.4 Post-mission disposal scenario13
Appendix B (Informative) Comparison of SOLEM model with international typical models14
B.1 International Typical Model14 B.2 Case Input14
B.3 Comparison of model evolution results14
References16

Foreword

This document is in accordance with the provisions of GB/T 1.1-2020 "Guidelines for standardization work Part 1: Structure and drafting rules for standardization documents" Drafting.

Please note that some of the contents of this document may involve patents. The issuing organization of this document does not assume the responsibility for identifying patents.

This document was proposed and coordinated by the National Technical Committee for Standardization of Aerospace Technology and Its Applications (SAC/TC425).

This document was drafted by: National Astronomical Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing University, and China Institute of Space Standardization.

The main drafters of this document are: Liu Jing, Zheng Fengchun, Zhang Yao, Cheng Haowen, Yang Xu, Wu Xiangbin, Li Yang, Li David, Tang Jingshi, Quan Haofang, Zhao Nanying.

Space debris environment evolution model

1 Scope

This document specifies the algorithm and computational process of the space debris environment evolution model.

This document is applicable to the prediction of the long-term evolution trend of the space debris environment on a large time scale, as well as satellite launch and post-mission disposal, active Assessment and analysis of the long-term impacts of various mitigation measures, policies, and regulations, such as debris removal, on the space debris environment.

2 Normative references

GB/T 32308-2015

GB/T 34513-2017

GB/T 43223-2023

GB/T 45621-2025

GB/T 45742-2025

3 Terms and definitions

GB/T 34513-2017, GB/T 32308-2015, GB/T 43223-2023, GB/T 45742-2025 and GB/T 45621- For the purposes of this document, the following terms and definitions are applicable.

3.1

The probability of successfully completing the disposal measures that meet the requirements of the mitigation rules after the spacecraft or launch vehicle orbital stage completes its established mission.

3.2 post-missionlifetimelimit

The limit on the remaining on-orbit life of a spacecraft or launch vehicle orbital stage after successful completion of disposal measures consistent with the requirements of mitigation regulations.

Note. Currently it is generally 25 years, and it may be reduced in the future as the number of spacecraft increases.

3.3 Disposal orbit

The orbital region where a satellite may be retained after successfully completing disposal measures consistent with the requirements of the mitigation rules.

3.4

Based on the mechanism of space debris generation and reduction, the space debris orbit is predicted by considering factors such as space launch, on-orbit collision, disintegration and orbit evolution.

A mathematical model for the long-term (centennial) evolution of the environment.

Note. It is mainly used to evaluate the effect of space debris mitigation and is the basis for formulating relevant rules and policies on space environmental protection.

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This preview omits tables, figures, formulas and parts of the technical clauses. The complete document — 20 pages — is available in the English PDF.

Referenced standards

Normative references

GB/T 32308-2015 · GB/T 34513-2017

Editions of GB/T 45738

Edition	Title	Revision	Status
GB/T 45738-2025	Space objects long-term evolution model	current edition	Current

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